Aviation Next

Bhisham Mansukhani finds out the 'plane' truths of future air travel…

Picture this: You have just woken up after an eight hour sleep in a long bed. You grab the phone and order breakfast. By the time your morning ablutions are done in the marble-tiled bathroom, the server arrives, food laid out on a trolley. You finish eating and look at the watch. It is time to meet the wife; she is at the health spa doing the treadmill rounds. And there's a note left for you - 'Don't forget to take Buster to the kennel'. True to word, you escort the dog to its resting place but not before going to the study and sending a long-pending email. Since there is still some time before the wife returns, you decide to have a quick surreptitious drink at the bar. An early morning bracer. Some time later…your wife is shopping and you are counting the bills. Later still…it's a gourmet dinner and since you are feeling romantic, there are candle lights. This you follow with a drop at the small piano bar for a sip of cognac and a Cuban cigar before retiring to bed. The next morning, it is time to leave. The plane lands and you step off into the runway…Welcome to the world of the A380 aircraft…

Or imagine this: You board the plane and as it zooms off, from the window you can see the panorama getting wider and wider, the land below with its myriad features is getting tinier until suddenly with a push the plane thrusts past the atmosphere and down below is the round earth. A little while later, you disembark on the moon for your annual out-of-the-world vacation…The scram jet, a prototype of which National Association of Space Administration (NASA) flew recently, promises commercial applications some time in the future making it possible to go anywhere from anywhere in earth in two hours and maybe even take the big leap forward of space tourism…

The scramjet is still some time ahead but in the former case, the A380, one does not even have to time travel too far into the future. It is reality in the making - say, another two years, if you believe Airbus. Dubbed the flying hotel, Airbus' A380 is scheduled to fly out of Changi Airport, Singapore in 2006. It will be the world's first four-level plane, accommodating 656 passengers. The two upper decks will be devoted to pampering passengers. “The main deck of the A380 is the widest in the world. Its floor area has 49 per cent more space and 35 per cent more seats than the Boeing 747-400, the largest aircraft at present,” says an Airbus spokesman.

To create the space, the A380 will be longer and fatter than any other commercial airliner, but most strikingly, it will be taller. This means that even in the versions configured for maximum seating, an entire level will be available for sleeper cabins, crew rest areas, a business centre and a nursery. The flying hotel's bar will stock a fine cellar. Staterooms will offer the ultimate airborne luxuries: a bed and shower. Seats will be wider and each will have its own separate armrest -- a frequent passenger demand. The exact accommodations in the planes will be determined by their owners or the airlines which buy the A380. Each A380 will cost about US$ 216 million. Airbus has been working closely with 50 major airports to ensure that the A380 will be welcome when it takes off and lands. The A380 is undoubtedly one of the aircraft of the future.

The year 2008 will see Airbus's biggest competitor Boeing (between the two, they have about 90 per cent of the aircraft business) launch their 7E7, also called the Dreamliner. But the Boeing vision is slightly different. It believes in creating smaller jets that can fly faster with greater fuel efficiency since the future, it believes, is all about “offering more flights at different times to better accommodate passengers”. The 7E7 is a family of aeroplanes in the 200 to 300-seat class that will carry passengers on routes between 3,500 and 8,500 nautical miles (6,500 to 16,000 kilometres) non-stop. The 7E7 will allow airlines to offer passengers more of what Boeing perceives they want: affordable, comfortable, non-stop, point-to-point travel to more destinations around the world. It will have larger lavatories, more spacious luggage bins, and electronic window shades whose transparency passengers can change during the flight. Boeing estimates that airlines will spend US $1.9 trillion for new jets over the next 20 years, including buying as many as 3,000 jets in the 7E7's midsize segment. The 7E7 will fly as fast as the fastest commercial jets today while consuming 15 to 20 per cent less fuel per passenger, which could mean cheaper travel or more profits for airlines.

Connections at high places

The opulence that the A380 promises is awesome but ask frequent fliers what they hope the future to be and the requirements are basic. For instance, Vikram Varma, Head-Institutional Business, Duncans Tea Limited, Kolkata, expects better in-flight facilities, better connectivity between different locations, more flights between important metros and better punctuality. “The use of mobile phones and the Internet is a very important issue,” he says.

Cecil K Dewars, VP - Corporate Communications, TVS Motor Company, who travels three times a week all over India for business, is another person who believes connectivity to be a very important factor in flights of the future. “I don't use laptops on flights because of stringent security norms. Instead, if laptops were allowed on board without the hassle, I could, for instance, on a flight to Delhi, be gainfully employed for two and a half hours.” These issues are already being addressed.

Till 2002, in-flight data communication services for passengers remained non-existent, unless connected with an acoustic modem to the US$3 to US$5 per-minute in-flight phones. Business user interest in Internet access continues to heighten, and research estimates that the market for airborne Internet service could reach US$1.4 billion in 2007. Before the 9/11 attacks, approximately 12 airlines had announced plans to equip more than 2,000 jets with Internet service, but many airlines are now scaling back spending on new planes and equipment following the drop in air travel. Airbus has however found a way. Having acquired a stake in on-board connectivity specialist Tenzing Communications, Airbus is planning to enable passengers to send and receive e-mail from their own laptops via the communications satellites. You can get connected via existing in-seat entertainment units, onboard telephones or local area networks (LANs). This service will be available to passengers on flights within North America paying US$4.95 to see the titles and senders of e-mails, plus 50 cents to read or send each page of text. They would also gain free access to a collection of Internet sites cached in an onboard server.

Recently, Singapore Airlines launched Tenzing's e-mail system aboard a Boeing 747-400 operating between Singapore and Los Angeles as part of its two-year, US$100 million CyberCabin next-generation in-flight entertainment and communications system. Cathay Pacific will also start equipping its aeroplanes with the technology later this year.

Close on the heels of the Airbus tie-up, Boeing announced that it had concluded long-running negotiations with US majors American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta Air Lines to launch its Connexion broadband Internet access service.

Lufthansa is one of the few airlines to have got into the act as well, offering broadband Internet connectivity under the title, FlyNet. “FlyNet offers passengers unlimited surfing of the web, extensive and up to date information through news media, allows users to send and receive emails with attachments in real-time and allows access to the corporate intranet or e-mail,” says Werner Heesen, general manager - passenger sales & director South Asia. FlyNet will be available in India along with the new Business Class products of Lufthansa on the Airbus 340-300 to be flown on the New Delhi-Munich route from June 09, 2004 onwards. It will be made available on all the three classes.

“The service was free to all passengers on the Lufthansa flights throughout the trial period from mid 2004. The airline expects to start charging between US$ 32 - $38 per flight leg for Internet access. Passengers will be able to redeem bonus miles through the airlines Miles & More programme to surf the web,” said Heesen.

Similar is the case with mobile phones. Clever computer and handset makers are already offering an option called “flight mode,” which disables the radio. As a result, the British Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has decided passengers in planes under its jurisdiction should be allowed to use these portable devices as a calendar or photo viewer because they do not interfere with the electronic circuits and radio systems used by the pilots.

The CAA says airlines should let travellers write messages, read documents and perform all other non-phone functions on phones that double up as computers, just as they can now work on a laptop or listen to music on an iPod at cruising altitudes.

Devices like radios, laptop computers and pacemakers emit negligible signals from electronics circuits. The CAA does demand that electronics companies make it clear when the radio is turned off. Sony Ericsson's P900 smart phone, for instance, has “FLIGHT MODE” plastered over its display.

In any case, flight crews are fighting a losing battle against cell phones. About half of the world's largest airlines plan to offer wireless Internet and mobile phone access on board within two to four years, according to a survey. A consortium of large European technology companies called Wireless Cabin and the German Aerospace Centre is working to bring these services to planes. Boeing Co's Connexion is working on a similar system.

Seat of comfort

At 6' 3”, Vijay Chacko, vice president, south, Clea Public Relations has one very reasonable want. “More leg room,” he says. “I'm fed up of seats where I have to scrunch up, cooped up for hours in a space that's not designed for a person like me.”

Leg room is defined as the distance between the junction of the seat back and seat bottom and the back of the seat ahead. It is a barometer of the passenger's comfort level.

Airlines, to be fair, are listening. Royal Brunei Airlines has just introduced new flatbed Sky Dreamer seats in its business class cabin. The Sky Dreamer seats can extend to 75 inches when fully reclined and comes equipped with in-seat power connector and a 10.4-inch personal TV. Thai Airways, Korean Air and China Southern Airlines have signed up B/E Aerospace to feature their Minipod electric lie-flat seat in their next generation business class cabins for B777, B747, A330 and A340 aircraft. Additionally, the Thai Airways programme will include B/E's new, luxuriously appointed international first class seat accommodations, specially designed for Boeing and Airbus long-haul aircraft.

China Southern, the largest airline in China, has also selected Spectrum (TM) coach class seats for its new Airbus A330 programme, from the upright dining and working positions to the lie-flat bed mode. An articulating arm structure moves downward as the seat reclines, providing additional bed width and comfort. A specially designed cocoon-style shell around the seat provides greater privacy and personal space, and can be outfitted with additional passenger controls and reading lights. Other features, such as an eight-way back massager, 110-volt laptop power outlet and storage spaces for shoes and other passenger items are also available. B/E product deliveries are scheduled to begin late 2004. Japan Airlines (JAL) is already offering the B/E Minipod

Designed in a stylish shell-shape, JAL's Shell Flat Seat arrangement has maximum 62-inch pitch and has a full recline of 170 degrees for better sleeping comfort when in bed-mode. In addition the seat is equipped with an adjustable flat footrest that folds up to extend the length of the seat in recline. It also includes a built-in massage function. A newly developed seat adjustment system incorporating four independent motors and gear systems ensures a soft, smooth seat movement at the touch of a button on the seat control panel.

The speed paradox

P S Ravindranath, Vice President - Technical, Vincity Networks, is the archetypal globetrotter who spends a lot of time on air. To him, future hopes rests on lesser flight times. “For example, it takes about 17 to 19 hours to negotiate the Atlantic and Pacific routes. If this could be shortened, it will provide great relief to business travellers,” he says. What if the maximum time spent on any journey was two hours? Tests being conducted by NASA promise this. Recently, a 3.7 metre (12feet) unpiloted prototype of NASA, part aeroplane and part spacecraft, powered by something known as the scramjet, is believed to have reached speeds of about 5,000 mph over the Pacific Ocean as it made a 11-second flight off the Californian coast. Aviation buffs have already started fantasising about taking off from any airport and landing on any other runway in the world in less than two hours or making a day trip from that same airport to the International Space Station and back - something that normally takes days or even weeks. In about 20 years, NASA hopes to start testing the scramjet for passenger flights.

But in the immediate future, speed does not figure high on the list of priorities of airlines. This is thanks to the experience of the Concorde. When the first Concorde flight took off in 1976, it was hailed as the future of aviation. It could cross the Atlantic in three hours at 1,370 miles per hour – twice the speed of sound and passengers from Europe could beat the time difference and arrive earlier than they took off. But the economics, mainly due to its fuel consumption, just didn't work despite a return flight from London to New York costing as much as US$10,000 – about twice as much as much as a first-class ticket on a regular jet. The Concorde was finally 'retired' on November 27, 2003 making high speeds something of an untouchable. Boeing did have plans for a Sonic Cruiser which went out of the window when they worked out the numbers. Airbus believes that a transport cruising at Mach 0.95 could be “the best way to move on for a next generation of airliner technology if the trade-offs can be done that will allow airlines to acquire and use the aircraft at a viable cost”. Boeing's Dreamliner does a Mach 0.85 speed. All of these are still way way below Concorde's Mach 2 levels. So, whatever else aircraft of the immediate future may be, they will not be extraordinarily fast. That is until they work out something with the scramjet which is still at least a couple of decades away. Or unless there is some incredible technological breakthrough.

Future imperfect

Speed is therefore out, dampening the rosy picture to an extent. But even when it comes to opulence of the A380 kind, there are snags. Airbus is building the biggest aircraft ever but it may have overlooked some of the more basic conveniences that business travellers are accustomed to, like quick check-ins and minimally populated fuselage. Exporter Prakash Vaswani who flies on the Singapore-New York trunk route frequently, has his reservations. “If I have to board an aircraft with almost 600 people, I don't care what the airlines have to say, there will be long check-in queues and the gates may have to be opened a ridiculous five hours in advance. That gives the airline a terrible turnaround time (between disembarkation and boarding of the next flight) as well. And these days, with all the extra security checks, boarding an A380 flight could well take hours. I'd rather fly on a long range aircraft that eliminates the hub and spoke headache than one which looks like a bit of a gimmicky circus really.”

Also, as Airbus begins to deliver aircraft, each airline may take a different approach towards yield management. Some will configure the plane themselves so bigger may not always be better if the extra space is used to cram in more seats. The first signs are already there. An airline hailed for its accent on luxury and a massive A380 client, Emirates has snubbed Airbus's fanciful descriptions of the A380 stating that 'there won't be gymnasiums and bars. These will be planes to carry passengers, not casinos.'

Even airports may not be ready to service the A380. At most of them, the needed modifications are estimated to cost US$ 80 million to US$ 100 million, mainly for outdoor improvements such as reinforcing taxiway bridges and widening runway shoulders. Los Angeles (LAX) International Airport, according to its officials, will be unable to efficiently handle the world's biggest commercial jet when it enters service in 2006.

"The plane is so tall and heavy and has such a large wingspan that it cannot use two of LAXs four runways, almost all boarding gates and many taxiways," LAX airport authorities have warned. Movements of other jets could also be limited when an A380 is on the airfield leading to substantial departure and arrival delays.

As things stand today, many airports will not be able to handle these aircraft in an efficient and safe manner. This will inevitably lead to hold-ups and delays, both for A380 operators and for other airlines. Could it then be a case of too much too bad for Airbus's flight when it begins delivery in 2006?

So the future is a mixed bag for air travel. Aircraft will be bigger, more opulent, but with a set of uncertainties which hopefully will be addressed. The speed quotient will not show any revolutionary changes but one thing is certain: the traveller will find flight more comfortable and productive. Connectivity will ensure that considerable business will be conducted while on the move and leisure on air will take on an entirely new meaning. There will be fewer stopovers and service will be personal. P S Ravindranath of Vincity Network, commenting on air travel, says, "One pays less, he gets to breath less; one pays more, he gets a blast of unneeded air." That is however today. Tomorrow, as they say, is another world.